Carlos Beltran’s contract: time to shut down the talk, brotherBy: Brendan Bilko
Somewhere in the fan hubbub surrounding Fred Wilpon’s comments in a New Yorker piece chronicling his financial history, is this idea that the proprietor’s harsh words stem from anger about having to pay underperforming stars. Naturally, the name I heard complained about most by WFAN callers was none other than Carlos Beltran’s. Well I’m here to write something none of them will read to quash that shit.
According to Fangraphs, Carlos Beltran has been worth 27.6 29.2 WAR since he joined the Mets in 2005. If you prefer Baseball Reference’s calculation he’s been worth 30.6 WAR by their math. I’m going to use the more conservative estimate.
The supposed whale of a contract signed by Beltran was worth $119 million over the course of seven years. Converting fWAR to dollars, he has been worth $113.3 ~$119.8 million . If we take into account the theory that the team may have had to overpay to get Beltran, then the man has already been worth the deal if he opts to stop playing today. (Note: Fangraphs updated some numbers that weren’t there the time this post was written. Updates as of 5/25 next to figures that have been struck-through.)
But he won’t stop because he’s Calos MF’n Beltran! If we extrapolate Beltran’s current season (1.7 1.8 fWAR) based on his play and the number of games he’s started (40), he could potentially be worth ~5.9 ~6.2 fWAR over the course of 2011. How much is that worth? Around $26.6 ~$27.9 million, and that’s using the estimate that a win in 2011 is worth ~$4.5 million dollars. Should that happen, Beltran will have been worth $132.2 ~$147.7 million over the course of his contract, or $13.2 $28.7 million more than he signed for.
Let’s say 6.2 fWAR is a bit on the optimistic side. If Carlos were to only be worth another 1.8 fWAR over the rest of this season, his 3.6 WAR year would be worth ~$16.2 million. That would bring his value to ~$136 million over his full contract term, or $17 million more than he was paid.
So please mongos, enough with #BlameBeltran contract talk. Get your “called-third-strike-blinders” off and enjoy the man while he’s here. You’re going to miss that contract when he’s gone.
Creative Commons photo by Keith Allison.