Gary Matthews, Junior: A Proof
By: Brendan Bilko
The gorgeous Monday afternoon that was Opening Day aside, it has been a difficult week to be a Mets fan. There are a number of things that could be put in this space as there was so much that has left me exacerbated, however I’ll just focus on one – Jerry Manuel’s determination to get Gary Matthews, Jr. reps.
In yesterday’s game against the Nationals, Matthews, Jr. came up with runners in scoring position in the second, fourth, sixth, and eighth innings. The results? Fly out, fly out, pop out, strike out. Each at bat also ended the inning. We talk about sample size here on a regular basis, and yes this is a small sample size. However if we extrapolate these numbers we get a similar answer – Gary Matthews, Jr. is not a good player.
In the six games he’s played in this season, his wOBA is at .277 (and it’s only that high because of a .333 OBP). Even if he reverts back to “form” he’s likely to only put up numbers comparable to the .303 or .313 he’s produced over the last couple of seasons with the Angels. League average is normally around .330. Here’s an inequality statement for you:
REGULAR ASS BASEBALL PLAYER > GARY MATTHEWS, JR.
Conversely, we have Angel Pagan spending more time on the bench than Mr. Matthews, Jr. In his limited time this season, he’s put up a wOBA of .324. While he might not put up last season’s .358, he certainly has the ability to put up 2008’s .330 line. I’ve argued for Angel before, which you can read here if you care for more details. The point being Angel Pagan is a good baseball player. Now we have another inequality statement:
REGULAR ASS BASEBALL PLAYER < ANGEL PAGAN
Let’s go ahead and bring defense into this. Though we don’t have nearly enough data to gauge performance this season, we know what their UZR numbers have been over the last three seasons:
- Gary Matthews, Jr.: -12.3, -9.3, -14.5
- Angel Pagan: 0.4, 1.2, 5.8
Now that we have that information we can officially finish our proof:
REGULAR ASS BASEBALL PLAYER < ANGEL PAGAN
REGULAR ASS BASEBALL PLAYER > GARY MATTHEWS, JR.
∴
ANGEL PAGAN > GARY MATTHEWS, JR.
Career numbers show it. Limited performance this season shows it. Leaving five runners on base in yesterday’s game shows it. Why can’t Jerry see it? For someone that talks about “playing the hot hand” as often as he does, he sure as hell isn’t very good at it.
I was writing a very similar article for Sabometrics. Playing GMJr over Angel Pagan is the worst of Jerry’s many bad moves.
Pagan is one of the few legit bats the Mets have right now (Reyes, Castillo, Bay, Wright, Francoeur (maybe)) and to sit him in favor of an automatic out who is also worse at defense is infuriating.
I’ll take it a step further – they should be figuring out some way to keep Pagan in the lineup when Beltran comes back. One of Bay, Pagan, Francoeur or Beltran should be figuring out how to play 1st base so that all of them can hit.